amazon-price-history

# Amazon Price History Tracker Track Amazon product price history, identify pricing patterns, and time your pricing decisions with precision. Alternative to Keepa for sellers who want AI-assisted price analysis. Paste product data, price snapshots, or competitor pricing. The agent builds price timelines, detects patterns, and recommends optimal pricing windows. ## Commands ``` price add <asin> <price> [date] # log a price data point price trend <asin> # analyze price trend direction price pattern <asin> # detect seasonal and cyclical patterns price alert set <asin> <target> # set alert for target price threshold price compare <asin1> <asin2> # compare pricing histories side-by-side price best-time <asin> # identify best time window to raise/lower price price volatility <asin> # compute price stability score price chart <asin> # render text-based price chart price report <asin> # full pricing analysis report price save # save all price history to workspace ``` ## What Data to Provide - **ASIN + price data** — current or historical prices with dates - **Buy Box price** — the winning price you see on the listing - **Competitor prices** — other sellers on the same listing - **Your cost structure** — COGS, FBA fees, target margin - **Seasonal context** — any known promotions or peak periods ## Price Analysis Framework ### Price Data Points to Track For each ASIN, capture: ``` Date | Price | Seller | Buy Box? | Coupon | Sale Event | Notes 2024-01-15 | $29.99 | Brand | Yes | 10% off | None | Normal 2024-01-20 | $24.99 | Brand | Yes | None | Flash sale | -17% 2024-02-01 | $32.99 | Brand | Yes | None | None | Post-sale ``` ### Price Trend Classification **Uptrend** (Price rising): - Average price this month > last month by >5% - Signal: possible demand increase, supply constraints, or brand repositioning - Seller action: monitor for opportunity to raise your price **Downtrend** (Price falling): - Average price this month < last month by >5% - Signal: increased competition, excess inventory, or market correction - Seller action: evaluate your cost floor, avoid race-to-bottom **Stable** (±5% range): - Price within 5% of 90-day average - Signal: mature market equilibrium - Seller action: compete on other factors (listing quality, reviews, ads) **Volatile** (Frequent swings >10%): - Price swings more than 10% within 30 days - Signal: heavy promotional activity or multiple sellers competing - Seller action: dynamic repricing is essential ### Price Volatility Score ``` Volatility = (Max Price - Min Price) / Average Price × 100 Score 0-10: Very stable — predictable market Score 10-25: Moderate — some promotional activity Score 25-50: Volatile — heavy competition or frequent sales Score 50+: Highly volatile — use dynamic repricing or avoid ``` ### Seasonal Pattern Detection Map price history against calendar events: - **Q4 (Oct-Dec)**: Holiday surge — premium pricing possible - **Prime Day (July)**: Deep discounts expected, plan inventory - **Back to School (Aug-Sep)**: Category-specific peaks - **Valentine's/Mother's Day**: Gift category spikes - **Post-holiday (Jan-Feb)**: Price depression, clear inventory ### Buy Box Price Analysis The Buy Box price matters more than list price: - Track who holds the Buy Box at each snapshot - Compute your price gap vs. current Buy Box winner - Identify patterns in Buy Box rotation (if multiple sellers) **Buy Box pricing rules:** - New seller entering: typically prices 5-10% below current winner - FBA advantage: can price slightly higher than FBM and still win - Low inventory: Buy Box may shift to higher-priced seller ### Price Alert Thresholds ``` PRICE DROP ALERT: Current price falls >10% below 30-day average PRICE SPIKE ALERT: Current price rises >20% above 30-day average BUY BOX LOST: Your price is no longer the Buy Box winner COMPETITOR ENTRY: New seller appears at significantly lower price FLOOR ALERT: Price drops below your calculated margin floor ``` ### Optimal Repricing Windows Based on historical patterns: - **Best time to raise price**: After a competitor goes out of stock - **Best time to lower price**: 2 weeks before Prime Day to boost velocity - **Avoid repricing**: During major sale events (prices stabilize after) - **Post-holiday**: Expect 15-25% price compression, plan ahead ## Margin Floor Calculation ``` Margin Floor = COGS + FBA Fees + Referral Fee + PPC Cost + Minimum Profit Example: COGS: $8.00 FBA fees: $4.50 Referral (15%): price × 0.15 PPC cost: $2.00 Min profit: $2.00 Floor = $8 + $4.50 + (price × 0.15) + $2 + $2 = solve for price Minimum price = ($16.50) / (1 - 0.15) = $19.41 ``` ## Workspace Creates `~/price-tracker/` containing: - `history/` — price logs per ASIN (ASIN.md files) - `alerts/` — triggered price alerts - `patterns/` — seasonal pattern analysis - `reports/` — full pricing reports ## Output Format Every price analysis outputs: 1. **Price Timeline Table** — chronological price history with key events marked 2. **Trend Direction** — current trend with confidence level 3. **Volatility Score** — 0-100 stability rating with interpretation 4. **Pattern Summary** — detected seasonal or cyclical patterns 5. **Optimal Price Window** — recommended price and timing 6. **Margin Check** — current price vs. your floor, profit per unit