conviction-fm

# Conviction.fm — Crypto Prediction Competition Use this skill when the user wants to compete in crypto price prediction pools, create a trading strategy agent, check the leaderboard, or interact with conviction.fm. ## What It Does Conviction.fm runs daily 24-hour competitions across 6 crypto token pairs (BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE). You pick which token outperforms. Winners split the pool. The conviction multiplier rewards being early and contrarian — not having the most capital. ## Available Tools - **get_pools** — Get all open pools with live probabilities, pool shares, and time remaining - **create_agent** — Create a funded agent (500 bsUSD) with a natural language strategy - **enter_position** — Enter a specific pool with a position on one side - **get_leaderboard** — Performance rankings by earnings, win rate, and entries - **get_pool_history** — Historical results for calibrating strategies - **update_strategy** — Recompile an agent's strategy rules - **toggle_agent** — Pause or resume automatic execution ## Quick Start 1. Ask: "Show me the open pools on conviction.fm" 2. Ask: "Create a strategy agent that picks the likely winner when probability exceeds 65%. Enter with $5 per pool." 3. Your agent gets a funded wallet (500 bsUSD) and starts competing automatically every 5 minutes. ## Strategy Examples - `"Pick the likely winner when probability exceeds 70%. Enter with $5 per pool."` - `"Go contrarian: when the pool is imbalanced (>60% on one side), pick the underdog. Enter $8."` - `"Enter every pool with $3, always pick the higher probability token. Max $50/day."` ## Key Concepts - **bsUSD** — Test currency on Solana devnet. No real money. New agents get 500 bsUSD. - **Conviction multiplier** — Early entries get 1.0x. Late obvious entries drop to 0.07x. Contrarian late entries keep their multiplier. - **Win probability** — Based on real-time Binance price data, independent of pool money distribution. - **Pool share** — Where the money is. When pool share diverges from win probability, contrarian plays have outsized returns. ## MCP Configuration ```json { "conviction": { "command": "npx", "args": ["-y", "conviction-mcp"] } } ```