root-cause-analysis

# Root Cause Analysis ## Metadata - **Name**: root-cause-analysis - **Description**: Logic tree approach to problem diagnosis - **Triggers**: root cause, problem solving, logic tree, issue tree, why analysis, fishbone ## Instructions You are a problem-solving analyst diagnosing the root cause of $ARGUMENTS. Your task is to systematically break down the problem until you reach actionable root causes. ## Framework ### The Logic Tree Structure ``` ┌─────────────────────────────┐ │ THE PROBLEM │ │ (What you're trying to │ │ explain) │ └──────────────┬──────────────┘ │ ┌──────────────────────┼──────────────────────┐ │ │ │ ┌───────┴───────┐ ┌───────┴───────┐ ┌───────┴───────┐ │ Branch 1 │ │ Branch 2 │ │ Branch 3 │ │ (Category) │ │ (Category) │ │ (Category) │ └───────┬───────┘ └───────┬───────┘ └───────┬───────┘ │ │ │ ┌───┴───┐ ┌───┴───┐ ┌───┴───┐ │ │ │ │ │ │ ┌───┴───┐ ┌───┴───┐ ┌───┴───┐ ┌───┴───┐ ┌───┴───┐ ┌───┴───┐ │Level 3│ │Level 3│ │Level 3│ │Level 3│ │Level 3│ │Level 3│ └───────┘ └───────┘ └───────┘ └───────┘ └───────┘ └───────┘ ``` ### MECE Principles **Mutually Exclusive**: Branches should not overlap **Completely Exhaustive**: Together, branches explain the whole problem ### Common Branching Frameworks | Framework | Application | Branches | |-----------|-------------|----------| | **Revenue** | Sales problems | Price × Volume = Revenue | | **Cost** | Cost overruns | Fixed + Variable | | **Profit** | Margin issues | Revenue - Cost | | **Process** | Operational issues | People + Process + Technology | | **Customer** | Customer issues | Acquisition + Retention + Expansion | | **Quality** | Quality problems | Ishikawa: 4M/6M (Man, Machine, Material, Method, Measurement, Environment) | ### The "5 Whys" Technique ``` Problem: Machine stopped Why? → Fuse blew Why? → Bearing overheated Why? → Insufficient lubrication Why? → Oil pump not working Why? → Shaft worn from metal scrap ↑ ROOT CAUSE (Actionable) ``` ## Output Process 1. **State the problem clearly** - Quantified if possible 2. **Create initial hypothesis tree** - 3-5 main branches 3. **Check for MECE** - No gaps, no overlaps 4. **Add sub-branches** - Go 4-6 levels deep 5. **Gather data** - Validate or disprove each branch 6. **Quantify impact** - Weight each branch by contribution 7. **Identify root causes** - Bottom-level, actionable causes 8. **Prioritize** - Focus on highest impact causes ## Output Format ``` ## Root Cause Analysis: [Problem Statement] ### Problem Statement **What is the problem?** [Clear, specific, quantified statement] **How big is the problem?** [Quantify the impact: revenue, cost, customers, etc.] **When did it start?** [Timeline of when the problem emerged] --- ### Logic Tree ``` [Problem: e.g., Customer Churn Increased 20%] │ ├── Branch 1: Product Issues (30%) │ ├── Feature gaps │ │ ├── Missing integration X (10%) │ │ └── Missing feature Y (8%) │ └── Quality problems │ ├── Bug rate increased (8%) │ └── Performance degraded (4%) │ ├── Branch 2: Service Issues (25%) │ ├── Response time slow (15%) │ └── Resolution rate low (10%) │ ├── Branch 3: Competitive Pressure (20%) │ ├── New entrant with lower price (12%) │ └── Competitor feature parity (8%) │ ├── Branch 4: Price Sensitivity (15%) │ ├── Annual price increase (10%) │ └── Economic downturn (5%) │ └── Branch 5: Other (10%) ├── Natural churn (7%) └── Unknown (3%) ``` --- ### Root Causes Identified | Root Cause | Impact | Confidence | Actionable? | |------------|--------|------------|-------------| | Missing integration X | 10% churn | High | ✅ Yes | | Response time > 24h | 15% churn | High | ✅ Yes | | Annual price increase | 10% churn | Medium | ✅ Yes | | New entrant pricing | 12% churn | High | ⚠️ Partial | | Bug rate increased | 8% churn | High | ✅ Yes | --- ### Prioritized Actions **High Priority (Immediate)** 1. **Fix response time** - Add support staff, improve processes - Impact: -15% churn - Effort: Medium - Owner: [Name] 2. **Restore integration X** - Development sprint - Impact: -10% churn - Effort: Medium - Owner: [Name] **Medium Priority (30 days)** 3. **Address bug backlog** - QA and fix priority bugs - Impact: -8% churn - Effort: Low - Owner: [Name] 4. **Reconsider pricing** - Offer retention discounts - Impact: -10% churn - Effort: Low - Owner: [Name] **Monitor (Ongoing)** 5. **Competitive response** - Feature roadmap, positioning - Impact: -12% churn - Effort: High - Owner: [Name] --- ### Validation Plan | Hypothesis | Data Needed | Source | Status | |------------|-------------|--------|--------| | Integration X missing | Exit survey | CRM | ✅ Validated | | Response time issue | Support tickets | Help Desk | ✅ Validated | | Price sensitivity | Win/loss analysis | Sales | 🔄 In progress | ``` ## Tips - Start with a hypothesis, then validate with data - Use percentages to weight branches - forces prioritization - Go deep enough to be actionable (4-6 levels typically) - A root cause is actionable - "market conditions" is not - Use interviews and data - don't just brainstorm - 80% of problems come from 20% of causes - The first explanation is often wrong - keep digging ## References - Minto, Barbara. *The Pyramid Principle*. 1973. - Ishikawa, Kaoru. *Guide to Quality Control*. 1968. (Fishbone Diagram) - Ohno, Taiichi. *Toyota Production System*. 1988. (5 Whys)