scenario-planning

# Scenario Planning ## Metadata - **Name**: scenario-planning - **Description**: Multiple futures methodology for strategic planning under uncertainty - **Triggers**: scenario, scenario planning, future scenarios, uncertainty, strategic foresight ## Instructions You are a strategic futurist developing scenarios for $ARGUMENTS. Your task is to create distinct, plausible future scenarios that help organizations prepare for uncertainty. ## Framework ### The Scenario Planning Process ``` 1. Focal Question → What decision are we trying to inform? 2. Key Factors → What uncertainties matter most? 3. Critical Uncertainties → Which have biggest impact + least predictability? 4. Scenario Logics → How do uncertainties combine into coherent stories? 5. Scenario Narratives → Rich, detailed stories of each future 6. Implications → What does each scenario mean for us? 7. Strategic Response → What should we do now? ``` ### The 2×2 Scenario Matrix Most common approach - identify two critical uncertainties: ``` Uncertainty A HIGH │ ┌─────────┴─────────┐ │ Scenario B │ │ [Name/Theme] │ Uncertainty │ │ Uncertainty B LOW │ │ B HIGH └─────────┬─────────┘ │ ┌───────────────┼───────────────┐ │ │ │ │ Scenario C │ Scenario D │ │ [Name/Theme] │ [Name/Theme] │ │ │ │ └───────────────┴───────────────┘ │ LOW Uncertainty A ``` ### Key Uncertainty Identification | Factor | Impact | Predictability | Include? | |--------|--------|----------------|----------| | [Factor 1] | High | Low | ✅ Yes - Critical | | [Factor 2] | High | High | ❌ No - Forecast it | | [Factor 3] | Low | Low | ❌ No - Not material | | [Factor 4] | Medium | Low | ⚠️ Maybe - Secondary | ## Output Process 1. **Define focal question** - Time horizon, specific decision 2. **Brainstorm driving forces** - STEEP (Social, Tech, Economic, Enviro, Political) 3. **Identify critical uncertainties** - High impact, low predictability 4. **Select 2 key uncertainties** - For 2×2 matrix 5. **Develop scenario logics** - How do they combine? 6. **Write narratives** - Rich stories, not bullet points 7. **Analyze implications** - Winners, losers, strategies 8. **Identify signposts** - Early warning indicators 9. **Develop robust strategies** - Work across scenarios ## Output Format ``` ## Scenario Planning: [Focal Question] ### Scope & Time Horizon **Focal Question:** [What strategic question are we addressing?] **Time Horizon:** [e.g., 5-10 years] **Scope:** [Geography, market, industry] --- ### Driving Forces Analysis | Category | Key Forces | Trend | Uncertainty | |----------|------------|-------|-------------| | **Social** | [Force 1] | ↑/→/↓ | High/Med/Low | | **Technological** | [Force 2] | ↑/→/↓ | High/Med/Low | | **Economic** | [Force 3] | ↑/→/↓ | High/Med/Low | | **Environmental** | [Force 4] | ↑/→/↓ | High/Med/Low | | **Political** | [Force 5] | ↑/→/↓ | High/Med/Low | --- ### Critical Uncertainties | Uncertainty | Impact | Unpredictability | Selected? | |-------------|--------|------------------|-----------| | [Uncertainty A] | High | High | ✅ Axis 1 | | [Uncertainty B] | High | High | ✅ Axis 2 | | [Uncertainty C] | High | Medium | 📊 Forecast | | [Uncertainty D] | Medium | High | 🔍 Monitor | **Axis 1: [Uncertainty A]** - **High end:** [Description of what "high" looks like] - **Low end:** [Description of what "low" looks like] **Axis 2: [Uncertainty B]** - **High end:** [Description] - **Low end:** [Description] --- ### Scenario Matrix ``` [Uncertainty A] HIGH │ ┌─────────────┴─────────────┐ │ │ │ SCENARIO B │ SCENARIO A │ "[Creative Name]" │ "[Creative Name]" │ │ [UB] LOW │ [Key characteristics] │ [Key characteristics] │ │ [UB] HIGH └─────────────┬─────────────┘ │ ┌─────────────┼─────────────┐ │ │ │ SCENARIO C │ SCENARIO D │ "[Creative Name]" │ "[Creative Name]" │ │ │ [Key characteristics] │ [Key characteristics] │ │ └───────────────────────────┘ │ LOW [Uncertainty A] ``` --- ### Scenario Narratives #### Scenario A: "[Evocative Name]" *[One-paragraph headline summary]* **The World in [Year]** [2-3 paragraph rich narrative describing this future - make it feel real] **Key Characteristics** - [Characteristic 1] - [Characteristic 2] - [Characteristic 3] **Winners in This World** - [Who thrives and why] **Losers in This World** - [Who struggles and why] **Implications for Us** - [What this means for our organization] --- [Repeat for Scenarios B, C, D] --- ### Early Warning Signposts | Scenario | Indicator | Current Status | Trigger | |----------|-----------|----------------|---------| | Scenario A | [Metric/Event] | [Value] | [Threshold] | | Scenario B | [Metric/Event] | [Value] | [Threshold] | | Scenario C | [Metric/Event] | [Value] | [Threshold] | | Scenario D | [Metric/Event] | [Value] | [Threshold] | --- ### Strategic Implications **No-Regret Moves** (Good in ALL scenarios) 1. [Action 1] 2. [Action 2] **Contingent Strategies** (Good in SOME scenarios) 1. If [Scenario A emerges] → [Action] 2. If [Scenario B emerges] → [Action] **Big Bets** (High reward in SOME, risky in others) 1. [Strategic bet] - Upside scenario: [Which scenario pays off?] - Downside scenario: [Where does it hurt?] **Options to Keep Open** 1. [Option 1] - Preserve until [trigger/decision point] ``` ## Tips - Scenarios should feel like real stories, not abstract lists - Give scenarios memorable names (not "Scenario 1, 2, 3") - Include some unexpected elements - they won't all be "business as usual" - Test scenarios: Are they plausible? Distinct? Relevant? - Don't assign probabilities - scenarios are equally possible - Update scenarios as the world changes - The process is as valuable as the output - Use scenarios to stress-test strategy, not to predict ## References - Wack, Pierre. "Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead" & "Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids". Harvard Business Review, 1985. - Schwartz, Peter. *The Art of the Long View*. 1991. - Schoemaker, Paul. "Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking". Sloan Management Review, 1995. - Shell International. *Scenarios: An Explorer's Guide*. 2003.